Abstract: Based on two simulated typhoons, the sensitivity analysis was carried out for the numerical storm surge forecast model in the East China Sea with northward typhoon. Using the stormsurge calculations of the Gaoqiao tidal station, the sensitivities of maximum storm surge to typhoon center longitude, latitude, central pressure and the maximum wind radius were studied. The results show that the maximum increase of water is not sensitive to the latitude of the typhoon center, is a little sensitive to typhoon central pressure and maximum wind radius, and is the most sensitive to typhoon center longitude. The time of maximum increase of water is not sensitive to the typhoon central pressure and the maximum wind radius, but is more sensitive to typhoon center longitude and latitude, especially the latitude. Between the two types of simulated typhoon, the time of maximum increase of water is more sensitive to typhoon center latitude and moving speed.

Key words: the numerical storm surge forecast model in the East China Sea, sensitive, maximum storm surge